“Collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon”, Sir David Attenborough voicing the conclusion of eminent scientists.
For a half-century humanity has completely failed to stop their relentless destruction of nature from which humans, all their products, and all life are made.
- In the last 50 years global natural resource extraction has nearly quadrupled, emissions and the warming effect of atmospheric greenhouse gases has more than doubled.
- Astonishingly the next 35 years of resource extraction and fossil fuel emissions are projected to equal the cumulative extractions and emissions of the past 300,000 years, the entire time of our H. sapiens species – and it won’t stop there. Social and economic collapse becomes inevitable and imminent.
Real reality COLLAPSE CAUSED by political reality science
For 50 years the science advice given to “protect and preserve the environment of humanity’s only one Earth” has reflected political reality: “Cut global consumption, extractions, emissions by sometime in the future… cut by 1980… by 1990… by 2030“, and the cuts never happen.
Lawmakers laugh, “Cut by 2030, hey I’m all for that, by then it’s somebody else’s problem, I’ll be out of office or dead!” “By sometime in the future” political reality dominates today in every country, even in Green New Deals, “By 2030 power demand is 100% clean, renewable and zero-emission ”.
In 1972 the first UN Conference was held to Protect and Preserve the Human Environment – “Only one Earth”. Today the half-century result is that natural resources and wildlife have not been “safeguarded”, pollution and greenhouse gases have “exceeded the environment’s capacity to clean itself”, social and economic collapse is imminent.
COLLAPSE STOPPED by real reality science
To limit global warming to below 2°C, to develop sustainably and to stop collapse science advice and human action must change from political-economic-social reality – “Cut global consumption by sometime in the future” – to real reality: “189 Nations cut/add consumption by responsibility now increasing with inaction”.
This is realized by: • Equal per capita division among humanity of the remaining global IPCC <2°C limit (carbon budget) for greenhouse gas emissions and the IRP sustainable development limit for natural resource extraction from consumption;• Constant yearly reduction(increase) of current emissions and extractions from consumption, increasing with inaction, so that national and thereby global limits will not be exceeded.
Four UN Human Development levels, five key nations
|UN Human Development 2018 - responsibility for collapse||EXTRACTIONS current: consumption extractions per capita||EXTRACTION CUTS|
required for sustainable development: 7 tonnes per capita by 2050 (IRP)
|EMISSIONS current: consumption CO2 emissions per capita||EMISSION CUTS:
CO2 emission cut required to stay below 2˚C (IPCC)
|UN HDI measured by Income, Education, Life expectancy||Tonnes per year |
|Percent per year now, |
increasing with inaction
|Tonnes CO2 per year |
|Percent per year now, increasing with inaction|
|VERY HIGH developed||23.5||cut 3.6%||11.7||cut 1.1%|
|United States||30.6||cut 4.4%||17.7||cut 14.9%|
|European Union||22.5||cut 3.5%||8.2||cut 0.7%|
|HIGH developed||16.1||cut 2.5%||5.4||cut 4.4%|
|China||19.6||cut 3.1%||6.3||cut 5.2%|
|HUMANITY||12.2||cut 1.7%||4.8||cut 3.8%|
|MEDIUM developed||4.6||add 1.3%||1.6||cut 0.2%|
|India||4.6||add 1.3%||1.7||cut 0.3%|
|LOW developed||2.3||add 3.4%||0.2||add 4.0%|
|Nigeria||2.4||add 3.3%||0.3||add 3.4%|
Collapse stopped, what you can do – citizens demand real reality LAWS NOW
1969, 50 years ago, scientists warned of collapse
“There is a change to which we are contributing to the planetary atmosphere… a change brought about by the internal combustion engine and the burning of fossil fuels… a change which produces a greenhouse effect and a warming of the earth… a change which will melt the polar icecaps and raise the level of the oceans…”, 1969, Frank Fraser Darling. BBC Reith Lecture.
Fifty years later, 2019 public survey
70% of Americans think climate change is a reality, but 70% of Americans – whose GNI per capita is $4,500 per month – won’t pay $10 per month to stop it. Are Europeans or any Very High Developed nations significantly different?
To hold warming below 2˚C, to sustain and to stop collapse requires science, • limits on mass, natural resource extractions, • extending the utility of mass in time by making products that last, • and in space by sharing products.
Depending on the pace of meaningful innovation, for another 5,000 years of civilizations limits on mass require an end to increasing numbers of H. sapiens using the mass, matter, natural resources – part of the principle science solution: “change from quantity to quality” in life and all else:
ALL 198 NATIONS
VERY HIGH DEVELOPED NATIONS:
HIGH DEVELOPED NATIONS
The blanks in the tables above are countries for which consumption extractions or emissions are not known. These countries together represent 4% of global consumption extractions and 7% of global consumption emissions