SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL WARMING held below 2˚C / 1.5˚C: COLLAPSE STOPPED

IPCC-IRP science limits, national reductions and additions by responsibility for natural resource extraction and CO2emissions from consumption per capita per year now, increasing with inaction.

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UN Human Development Very High , High , Medium , Low 2018 EXTRACTIONS : cumulative and current consumption extractions per capita EXTRACTION CUTS : 7 tonnes per capita by 2050 required for sustainable development (IRP)EMISSIONS
cumulative and consumption CO2 emissions per capita
EMISSION CUTS : CO2 emission cut required to 2100 to stay below 2˚C / 1.5˚C (IPCC)
CollapseStopped.org/Tonnes per year per capitaPercent per year now, increasing with inactionTonnes CO2 per year per capitaPercent per year now, increasing with inaction
Cumulative (1990-2017)Consumption (2017)For sustainable developmentCumulative (1780 - 2017)Consumption (2016)for 2˚Cfor 1.5˚C
VERY HIGH developed59723 .5- 3 .6%71611 .9- 10 %- 38 %
UNITED STATES83230 .6 - 4 .4%1,20418 .1- 15 %- 55 %
EUROPEAN UNION56222 .5 - 3 .5%6658 .2- 7 %- 25 %
HIGH developed27616 .1 - 2 .5%1495 .5- 5 %- 19 %
CHINA30219 .6- 3 .1%1446 .4- 6 %- 22 %
Humanity23612 .2- 1 .7%2044 .8- 4 %- 15 %
MEDIUM developed864 .6+ 1 .3%411 .7- 1 %- 6 %
INDIA834 .6+ 1 .3%361 .7- 1 %- 1 %
LOW developed402 .3+ 3 .4%100 .2+ 3 %+ 3 %
NIGERIA482 .4+ 3 .3%180 .3+ 3 %+ 0 .5%

(1) For sustainable development: the International Resource Panel (IRP), the global science authority on natural resources, concluded that the limit for resource extraction from consumption is 7 tonnes per capita per year by 2050. Sweden currently consumes 24.2 tonnes of resources per capita per year, increasing 1.6% per year (25 year trend); to adhere to the IRP limit Sweden should reduce resource consumption 3.7% per year now increasing with inaction. Tanzania consumes 1.4 tonnes of resources per person and can increase up to 5.1% per year and not exceed the limit.

(2) To hold global warming below 2˚C/1.5˚C: IPCC, the global science authority on climate change, concluded that the emission limit remaining on 1 Jan 2019 was 900 billion tonnes CO2 (117 tonne CO2 per capita) for 2˚C  (>66% probability, fossil fuels & industry, accounting for earth feedback systems and rapid reduction of non-CO2 forcings), and 245 GtCO2 (32 tonnes CO2 per capita) for 1.5˚C. Sweden’s population is 10 million, its limits therefore are 1.2 GtCO2 / 0.3 GtCO2 . Sweden currently emits 0.07 GtCO2, decreasing 0.4% per year (25 year trend). Sweden’s 2˚C limit will be emitted in about 16 years, and its 1.5˚C limit in less than 5 years! To avoid exceeding the IPCC limits, Sweden should cut CO2 emissions 6% per year for 2˚C and 21% for 1.5˚C per year now, increasing with inaction. Tanzania currently increases its emissions by 4% / year (25 year trend) but can only increase its emissions by 3 % for 2˚C and by 1% for 1.5˚C per year.

VERY HIGH DEVELOPED NATIONS

UN HDICountryEXTRACTIONS consumption per capita (2) (2017) EXTRACTION CUTS to sustain (3) % per year EMISSIONS cumulative per capita (4) (1751-2017)EMISSIONS consumption per capita (5) (2016) EMISSION CUTS for 2˚C (6) % per year EMISSION CUTS for 1.5˚C (7) % per year
Rank (1)tonnes - cut + addtonnes CO 2tonnes CO 2 - cut + add - cut + add
Very High Developed:23.5-3.6%71611.9-10.2%-37.6%
European Union 2822.5-3.5%6658.2-7.0%-24.7%
1Norway37.4-4.9%4889.5-7.9%-28.9%
2Switzerland30.9-4.4%33314.5-13.0%-48.0%
3Australia43.0-5.4%68616.0-13.0%-48.3%
4Ireland19.9-3.1%4299.3-7.5%-27.5%
5Germany22.3-3.4%1,06811.0-9.0%-33.1%
6Iceland31.7-4.5%355
7Hong Kong20616.8-16.5%-61%
8Sweden24.2-3.7%4807.3-5.7%-20.9%
9Singapore73.0-6.9%34322.4-19.4%-71.5%
10Netherlands26.7-4.0%6539.1-7.2%-26.7%
11Denmark24.4-3.7%6779.4-7.4%-27.4%
12Canada34.4-4.7%84416.1-13.4%-49.4%
13United States30.6-4.4%1,20418.1-15.0%-55.4%
14United Kingdom22.3-3.4%1,0508.6-6.6%-24.4%
15Finland36.1-4.8%54012.8-10.1%-37.4%
16New Zealand24.3-3.7%3698.6-7.5%-27.6%
17Belgium23.3-3.6%1,00715.9-13.0%-48.2%
18Liechtenstein
19Japan24.6-3.7%47911.2-9.9%-36.4%
20Austria31.7-4.5%58010.7-8.8%-32.6%
21Luxembourg103.1-7.8%1,21342.3-33.9%-100%
22Israel21.4-3.3%27010.4-8.6%-32%
23Korea (Republic)26.4-3.9%31212.7-11.1%-41.1%
24France21.9-3.4%5467.0-5.7%-20.9%
25Slovenia22.4-3.5%3208.1-6.5%-23.5%
26Spain22.0-3.4%2966.3-5.0%-18.4%
27Czechia98410.1-8.3%-30.6%
28Italy19.9-3.1%3907.8-0.60%-22.1%
29Malta26.0-3.9%21911.3-9.3%-35.0%
30Estonia29.5-4.3%81113.4-11.6%-42.5%
31Greece25.0-3.8%3235.7-4.3%-16.0%
32Cyprus19.9-3.1%2226.7-4.5%-16.3%
33Poland17.2-2.7%6877.9-6.8%-25.0%
34United Arab Emirates48.4-5.7%44427.7-25.6%-94.5%
35Andorra151
36Lithuania35.7-4.8%6297.9-7.7%-28.5%
37Qatar13.0-1.9%71534.7-33.8%-100%
38Slovakia45.1-5.5%8788.7-7.4%-27.3%
39Brunei Darussalam19.1-3.0%78923.2-25.5%-94.3%
40Saudi Arabia11.8-1.6%42219.9-18.2%-67.3%
41Latvia23.1-3.6%6376.5-5.9%-21.5%
42Portugal16.6-2.6%2325.3-4.4%-16.1%
43Bahrain14.4-2.2%55614.8-10.5%-39.3%
44Chile16.8-2.6%1485.3-4.8%-17.9%
45Hungary14.7-2.2%4936.6-5.6%-20.7%
46Croatia12.6-1.8%2794.5-3.4%-12.9%
47Argentina11.4-1.5%1814.8-4.4%-16.3%
48Oman10.3-1.2%23516.4-15.9%-58.7%
49Russia9.9-1.0%7029.7-8.4%-31.2%
50Montenegro21.9-3.4%246
51Bulgaria12.6-1.8%5165.4-4.7%-17.1%
52Romania16.8-2.6%4183.8-3.0%-11.4%
53Belarus0.113.7%5907.3-6.7%-24.6%
54Bahamas19.0-3.0%401
55Uruguay34.8-4.7%1032.1-1.0%-5.6%
56Kuwait45.8-5.5%63623.6-21.4%-79.0%
57Malaysia22.6-3.5%1678.5-8.2%-30.4%
58Barbados11.0-1.4%182
59Kazakhstan17.9-2.8%63513.2-13.8%-51.2%

HIGH DEVELOPED NATIONS

UN HDICountryEXTRACTIONS consumption per capita (2) (2017) EXTRACTION CUTS to sustain (3) % per year EMISSIONS cumulative per capita (4) (1751-2017)EMISSIONS consumption per capita (2016) 5 EMISSION CUTS for 2˚C (6) % per year EMISSION CUTS for 1.5˚C (7) % per year
Rank (1)tonnes - cut + addtonnes CO 2tonnes CO 2 - cut + add - cut + add
High Developed:16.1-2.5%1495.5-5.1%-18.6%
60Iran13.8-2.0%2087.3-6.2%-23.2%
61Palau422
62Seychelles23.7-3.6%170
63Costa Rica7.7-0.3%481.4+0.3%-3.1%
64Turkey16-2.5%1145.8-5.3%-19.6%
65Mauritius20.9-3.3%812.2-0.9%-5.3%
66Panama7.4-0.2%664.9-3.6%-13.4%
67Serbia284
68Albania11.2-1.4%941.0+1.0%-1.9%
69Trinidad and Tobago5.5+0.7%1,06813.3-10.1%-37.0%
70Antigua and Barbuda13.3-1.9%215
71Georgia9.1-0.8%5831.6-0.5%-4.6%
72Saint Kitts and Nevis125
73Cuba6.9+0.1%145
74Mexico8.4-0.6%1444.2-3.9%-14.0%
75Grenada68
76Sri Lanka3.8+1.9%211.6-1.3%-6.5%
77Bosnia and Herzegovina8.4-0.5%296
78Venezuela 6.9+0.1%2374.8-4.4%-16.1%
79Brazil13.2-1.9%682.6-2.2%-8.6%
80Azerbaijan6.3+0.3%3844.4-4.3%-15.9%
81Lebanon14.8-2.2%106
82Macedonia258
83Armenia8.2-0.5%5050.9+1.0%-1.8%
84Thailand14.9-2.3%1034.6-4.3%-15.8%
85Algeria3.0+2.6%100
86China19.6-3.1%1446.4-5.9%-21.9%
87Ecuador9.8-1.0%672.9-2.3%-9.2%
88Ukraine12.0-1.6%6505.4-4.8%-17.6%
89Peru8.9-0.7%582.4-1.9%-8.2%
90Colombia9.7-1.0%642.1-1.6%-7.1%
91Saint Lucia67
92Fiji7.0+0.1%53
93Mongolia13.9-2.0%1838.9-9.7%-35.9%
94Dominican Republic6.0+0.5%630.9+1.4%-1.4%
95Jordan6.4+0.2%653.5-3.0%-11.2%
96Tunisia6.1+0.4%711.0+0.9%-2.0%
97Jamaica7.6-0.2%1471.1+0.8%-2.1%
98Tonga38
99Saint Vincent and Grenadines57
100Suriname14.0-2.1%190
101Botswana34.4-4.7%586.2-7.9%-29.1%
102Maldives14.6-2.2%45
103Dominica53
104Samoa8.4-0.6%34
105Uzbekistan6.2+0.4%348
106Belize7.5-0.2%45
107Marshall Islands45
108Libya3.8+1.9%307
109Turkmenistan21.6-3.4%476
110Gabon4.5+1.4%121
111Paraguay10.7-1.3%220.8+1.2%-1.7%
112Moldova464

MEDIUM DEVELOPED NATIONS

UN HDICountryEXTRACTIONS consumption per capita (2) (2017) EXTRACTION CUTS to sustain (3) % per year EMISSIONS cumulative per capita (4) (1751-2017)EMISSIONS consumption per capita (5) (2016) EMISSION CUTS for 2˚C (6) % per year EMISSION CUTS for 1.5˚C (7) % per year
Rank (1)tonnes - cut + addtonnes CO 2tonnes CO 2 - cut + add - cut + add
Medium Developed:4.6+1.3%411.7-1.1%-5.8%
113Philippines4.3+1.5%291.4-0.8%-5.2%
114South Africa8.4-0.6%3506.1-5.2%-19.2%
115Egypt4.7+1.2%582.4-1.9%-7.9%
116Indonesia6.2+0.4%472.0-1.4%-6.7%
117Viet Nam10.0-1.1%352.3-2.0%-8.3%
118Bolivia 4.1+1.6%430.5+2.4%+0.1%
119Palestine8
120Iraq2.7+3.0%105
121El Salvador5.3+0.8%340.6+2.0%-0.5%
122Kyrgyzstan8.0-0.4%3171.6-0.5%-4.6%
123Morocco3.7+2.0%451.9-1.2%-6.0%
124Nicaragua3.9+1.8%260.4+2.8%+0.5%
125Cabo Verde8.2-0.5%19
126Guyana115
127Guatemala3.3+2.3%240.5+2.2%-0.3%
128Tajikistan3.7+1.9%246
129Namibia7.2-0.1%252.7-2.6%-10.1%
130India4.6+1.3%361.7-1.3%-6.3%
131Micronesia27
132Timor-Leste4
133Honduras3.4+2.2%250.5+2.2%-0.2%
134Bhutan10.4-1.2%18
135Kiribati16
136Bangladesh2.4+3.4%90.7+0.6%-2.5%
137Congo0.2+10.9%13
138Vanuatu7.9-0.4%16
139Laos2.2+3.6%61.0-0.5%-4.4%
140Ghana3.5+2.1%110.4+2.2%-0.3%
141Equatorial Guinea74
142Kenya3+2.6%80.3+2.6%+0.3%
143Sao Tome and Principe6.2+0.3%14
144Eswatini13
145Zambia3.6+2.0%70.4+1.6%-0.9%
146Cambodia3.6+2.1%211.0+0.0%-3.9%
147Angola3.2+2.4%10
148Myanmar1.5+4.8%4
149Nepal2.7+2.9%220.5+1.0%-1.9%
150Pakistan3.2+2.4%81.1+0.0%-3.7%
151Cameroon1.9+4.0%3170.2+3.5%+1.5%

LOW DEVELOPED NATIONS

UN HDICountryEXTRACTIONS consumption per capita 2 (2017) EXTRACTION CUTS to sustain (3) % per year EMISSIONS cumulative per capita (4) (1751-2017)EMISSIONS consumption per capita (5) (2016) EMISSION CUTS for 2˚C (6) % per year EMISSION CUTS for 1.5˚C (7) % per year
Rank 1tonnes - cut + addtonnes CO 2tonnes CO 2 - cut + add - cut + add
Low Developed:2.3+3.4%100.2+3.1%+0.8%
152Solomon Islands12
153Papua New Guinea2.6+3.1%18
154Tanzania1.4+5.1%40.2+3.1%+0.9%
155Syrian Arab Republic3.2+2.4%97
156Zimbabwe0.6+7.7%460.3+2.8%+0.4%
157Nigeria2.4+3.3%180.3+2.8%+0.5%
158Rwanda3.1+2.5%20.0+9.5%+7.7%
159Lesotho11.6-1.5%12
160Mauritania2.5+3.2%15
161Madagascar0.8+6.6%30.1+4.5%+2.7%
162Uganda2.5+3.2%20.1+4.5%+2.6%
163Benin4.3+1.5%90.5+2.2%-0.3%
164Senegal2.4+3.2%130.3+2.6%+0.3%
165Comoros5
166Togo2.5+3.2%80.8+0.7%-2.3%
167Sudan2.9+2.7%7
168Afghanistan1.2+5.5%6
169Haiti1.1+5.7%6
170Côte d'Ivoire0.9+6.3%130.3+3.1%+0.8%
171Malawi1.2+5.5%30.1+4.2%+2.2%
172Djibouti2.4+3.4%20
173Ethiopia20.1+4.2%+2.2%
174Gambia2.4+3.3%6
175Guinea2.3+3.5%60.0+8.0%+6.1%
176Congo (Dem)2.0+3.9%2
177Guinea-Bissau5
178Yemen1.2+5.6%22
179Eritrea6.3+0.3%4
180Mozambique2.0+3.9%60.4+1.9%-0.6%
181Liberia1.6+4.6%10
182Mali4.6+1.3%2
183Burkina Faso3.9+1.8%30.1+5.4%+3.5%
184Sierra Leone6.4+0.3%5
185Burundi1.6+4.6%1
186Chad1.6+4.7%1
187South Sudan8.5-0.6%7
188Central African Republic2.5+3.1%3
189Niger3.0+2.6%2
Humanity12.2-1.7%2044.8-4.1%-15.2%

The blanks in the table above are countries for which data on consumption extractions or emissions are not available. These countries together represent 4% of global consumption extractions and 4% of global consumption emissions.

(1) United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Indices and Indicators (HDI) 2018 Statistical Update

(2)United Nations Environment, International Resource Panel (IRP), Global Material Flows Database, Material Footprint per capita. The Material Footprint is defined as the attribution of the total global extraction of biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores and non-metal ores to the final demand of a country (or all natural resources extracted for a nation’s consumption of goods and services).

(3) The International Resource Panel, the global authority on natural resources, concluded that for sustainable development the extraction of resources be limited to 7 tonnes per capita by 2050 (IRP Managing and conserving the natural resource base for sustained economic and social development (2014). The annual cuts / additions of national extractions for the consumption of goods and services will realize the limit of 7 tonne / capita by 2050.

(4) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, National CO2 Emissions 1751_2014; Le Quéré et al. (2018), Global Carbon Project, National Emissions v1, Fossil fuel emissions and industry, 2015-2017; Population World Population Prospects, 2019 revision, medium estimate. 

(5) Le Quéré et al. (2018) Global Carbon Project 2018 National Emissions v1, Consumption-based emissions (fossil fuel and industry), bunkers and stats proportionally allocated. World Population Prospects, 2019 revision, medium estimate.

(6) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global science authority on climate change concluded that to limit global warming to 2˚C with >67% probability, accounting for earth system feedbacks (100 GtCO2), relying on very rapid reduction of non-CO2 forces, with no temperature overshoot and no negative emissions, global carbon emissions must be limited to 1070 GtCO2 from 1/1/2018 onwards, or 1030 GtCO2 from 1/1/2019 onwards. This is a limit (carbon budget) of about 900 GtCO2 from combustion of fossil fuels and industry – not including land-use emissions- (IPCC 2018 Special Report, Global warming of 1.5˚C, Le Quéré et al. (2018) Global Carbon Project, global budget v1.0).  Annual reductions / increases are calculated by responsibility, with international and intergenerational equity (2019-2100). If countries have not yet reached zero emissions by 2100, their remaining limit (budget) is at least 20 years of 2100 emissions.

(7) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global science authority on climate change concluded that to limit global warming to 1.5˚C with >67% probability, accounting for earth system feedbacks (100 GtCO2), relying on very rapid reduction of non-CO2 forces, with no temperature overshoot and no negative emissions, global carbon emissions must be limited to 320 GtCO2 from 1/1/2018 onwards, or 280 GtCO2 from 1/1/2019 onwards. This is a limit (carbon budget) of about 245 GtCO2 from combustion of fossil fuels and industry – not including land-use emissions- (IPCC 2018 Special Report, Global warming of 1.5˚C, Le Quéré et al. (2018) Global Carbon Project, global budget v1.0).  Annual reductions / increases are calculated by responsibility, with international and intergenerational equity (2019-2100). If countries have not yet reached zero emissions by 2100, their remaining limit (budget) is at least 20 years of 2100 emissions.